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The Evidence

L'archivio scientifico che scardina 50 anni di superstizioni sul fumo


 
 

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Chi odia il fumo dice che il fumo passivo è un pericolo scientificamente provato, ripetendo ciò che sente dai media. Chi vuole fumare tende a dubitarne, e alcuni (solitamente lettori di FORCES) sanno che non è vero.

MA LA RAGIONE INTIMA DEL PERCHE' CIO' NON E' VERO
(E COME QUESTO INGANNO E' CONGEGNATO ALLA BASE) E' SAPUTO DA POCHI.

Forse alcune delle "grandi" figure mediche che tutti conosciamo lo sanno ma, naturalmente, si guardano bene dal dirlo. Dall'altro lato della "barricata" (qualunque esso sia) non ci risulta che lo sappia proprio nessuno - al di la della convinzione ideologica o del buon senso.

CLICCA QUI PER SCARICARE
FUMO PASSIVO: UN PROBLEMA ISTITUZIONALE
in formato PDF

Il documento può essere stampato su un semplice foglio A4 da entrambi i lati e distribuito e chiunque. Il documento (solo 174 Kb) può anche essere scaricato, salvato su disco (tasto destro mouse - "salva oggetto col nome") e spedito come allegato e-mail.

AIUTACI AD AIUTARTI!

FAI CONOSCERE A TUTTI  LA FRODE SU CUI SI BASA LA "LEGGE A TUTELA DELLA SALUTE DEI NON FUMATORI!"
...Specialmente ai fumatori stessi!

SE FUMI NON AMMAZZI NESSUNO

La ragione è semplice: l'affermazione che "il fumo (in questo caso passivo) uccide" si può fare in tre parole; per dimostrare che l'affermazione è fraudolenta servono tomi. Ecco perché i crociati  della "salute pubblica" l'hanno sempre fatta franca: chi legge i tomi? Inoltre da anni nel mondo è corso una vera campagna di intimidazione di chiunque dice che si tratta di falso. La silenziosa campagna è condotta da potentissime cricche antifumo riccamente finanziate da industrie farmaceutiche oltre che da denaro pubblico. In breve il dissidente - specialmente nell'ambiente accademico - ci rimette la carriera. Sistematicamente, uno dopo l'altro, chi si è esposto contro la truffa è stato raggiunto dalla mano longa delle cosche e intimidito nel silenzio ufficiale. Esempi e citazioni sono visibili nel  blog del dissidente americano Michael Siegel. La storia della guerra alla sigaretta è pavimentata non solo con frodi, ma anche con intimidazioni per silenziare ogni dissenso ufficiale. Il resto dei "pesci piccoli" (come per esempio noi) sono semplicemente ignorati perché si conta sul fatto che non riescano a raggiungere un numero di persone sufficiente a cambiare l'opinione della massa. Bisogna far credere al popolo che non esiste dissenso: "il fumo uccide" in ogni forma. Ma soffocare la verità è molto più difficile di quanto sembra. Coperti dall'anonimato che FORCES garantisce, epidemiologi e scienziati continuano a far sentire la loro voce producendo piccoli capolavori di sintesi come quello che vi presentiamo.

Finalmente - dopo anni di distillazione - è disponibile un documento di rigida fedeltà scientifica e con enorme bibliografia che, in un solo foglio e in parole semplicissime, permette a tutti - dal Parlamentare alla persona qualunque - di capire i tre pilastri su cui si basa la più grande frode epidemiologica mai concepita. Ognuno dei tre punti è, da solo, sufficiente per scardinare totalmente ogni affermazione sui pericoli del fumo passivo. Messi assieme, i tre punti permettono a chiunque di capire l'incredibile portata di questa frode e la corruzione di chi - da pulpiti medici e universitari se non ministeriali - ha detto e dice che il fumo passivo "avvelena" il prossimo. Si può anche percepire la strabiliante incompetenza delle figure politiche che fanno eco alla falsa rappresentazione dell'evidenza senza mai verificare i fatti e fidandosi ciecamente della "autorità".

L'enorme problema rappresentato da istituzioni sanitarie corrotte ai vertici viene così in piena luce e porta a chiedersi quante altre frodi sulla salute che si dice siano "dimostrate scientificamente" sono in corso, sperperando denaro pubblico nelle tasche di approfittatori. Forse ora ogni fumatore può fumare in locali chiusi con la "coscienza pulita" perché, a sua insaputa, è sempre stata pulita in primo luogo.


FUMO PASSIVO: UN PROBLEMA ISTITUZIONALE

I divieti di fumo, e gli inerenti costi economici e sociali, sono basati sulla falsa rappresentazione di evidenza - evidenza che in realtà non corrobora alcuna delle affermazioni dei proibizionisti. Questa breve esposizione è frutto di un processo di distillazione informatica di diversi anni. Mentre si mantiene stretto rigore scientifico (tutta l’informazione è rigidamente documentata), si rende accessibile al non esperto l’intimo meccanismo della più vasta truffa epidemiologica mai concepita. Il fatto che essa sia stata adottata sia dalle autorità sanitarie sia da governi e da illustri personaggi della medicina dovrebbe causare serie preoccupazioni sullo stato dell’integrità istituzionale indipendentemente dell’argomento fumo.

Antefatto - Il caso contro il fumo passivo è basato principalmente sull’affermazione che esso causi cancro polmonare o malattie cardiovascolari nei non fumatori. La breve analisi che segue esaminerà ciò che è considerata l’evidenza più pronunciata, cioè quella sul cancro polmonare. Va da sé che quanto sottoesposto si applica parimenti sia al rischio di malattie cardiovascolari, sia a quello di ogni altra malattia attribuita al fumo passivo.
 
Il rapporto della Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) statunitense del 1992, considerato una pietra miliare per l’eliminazione del fumo dai locali pubblici, stabilì che l’elevazione di rischio per cancro al polmone era del 19%. A suo tempo, una corte federale americana dichiarò che il rapporto EPA era fraudolento perché basato su scienza e procedure viziate. Infatti l’elevazione di rischio calcolata dalla EPA è invalida perché basata su risultati palesemente contrastanti.

La EPA dedusse il rischio da 11 studi, di cui otto riportavano un’elevazione di rischio e tre una riduzione di rischio, ovvero protezione dal cancro polmonare. Queste contraddizioni sarebbero sufficienti a negare la probabilità di rischio, ma anche ipotizzando che la media del 19% sia un numero valido, un’analisi di come e da quali dati questo numero sia stato calcolato conduce alle straordinarie rivelazioni esposte sotto. Da notare che queste rivelazioni sono applicabili a tutti gli studi sul fumo passivo che hanno preceduto e seguito il rapporto EPA del 1992 fino al giorno d’oggi.
 
1. Una inesistente misura - Gli studi affermano che il rischio di cancro polmonare nei non fumatori aumenta con l’aumento dell’esposizione al fumo passivo. Ciò significa che l’esposizione deve essere accuratamente misurata per quantificare numericamente il rischio con la precisione al secondo decimale che troviamo negli studi. Visto che il cancro polmonare si sviluppa lentamente e si manifesta prevalentemente in età avanzata, diventa necessario misurare l’esposizione dei non fumatori durante l’arco della vita. Questo è ciò che gli studi dicono di aver fatto, sebbene non possa essere stata una misura che parte dalla nascita e arriva ai 60-70 anni e nemmeno di una misura a ritroso dall’età avanzata alla nascita, essendo ambedue misure che sono ovviamente impossibili.  

Talmente impossibili, infatti, che l’esposizione al fumo passivo non è stata misurata affatto. Invece di una misura indipendentemente oggettiva si è chiesto a non fumatori dell’età di 60-70 anni di ricordare quale fosse stata la loro personale esposizione al fumo passivo durante la vita. Le domande tipicamente concernevano il ricordarsi quante sigarette, sigari e pipe erano state fumate in loro presenza a cominciare dai tempi della loro infanzia. Tali vaghissime memorie, sollecitate solitamente con rapide interviste telefoniche o addirittura provviste dai parenti di persone già decedute, venivano trascritte e registrate dagli studi sotto forma di numeri precisi, come se privi di alcun errore o incertezza. Tutti sappiamo quanto sia difficile ricordare cosa si è mangiato una settimana fa e tanto meno venti anni prima o durante l’ infanzia; come è possibile ricordare con un’assurda pretesa di precisione l’esposizione al fumo di 30 o 50 anni addietro? A meno che non si desideri essere gabellati, l’unica conclusione possibile è che, senza misurazioni affidabili, le elaborazioni statistiche sono un’illusione e così pure i loro risultati di rischio.  Questi argomenti sono da soli già sufficienti a scartare gli studi e le conclusioni di rischio.

2. I vizi fatali - Supponiamo ora che le misure di esposizione siano valide, anche se non lo sono. Un’altra serie di vizi annulla la credibilità dei risultati di questi studi. Riassunti tendenziosi, condotti da gruppi interessati a trovare rischi sul fumo passivo, riportano che la media di tutti gli studi sul cancro al polmone e fumo passivo pubblicati fino al Maggio del 2006 (circa 75) indica un’elevazione di rischio del 20%, praticamente la stessa immaginata dalla EPA nel 1992. Questa relativamente esigua elevazione non è credibile perché gli studi non tengono conto di tutta una serie di pregiudizi, di tendenziosità (“bias”) e di fattori confondenti che sono inevitabilmente presenti e che sono più che sufficienti a cancellare la dichiarata elevazione. Per esempio, è noto che gente affetta da cancro polmonare è più incline ad amplificare la propria memoria di esposizione di chi non è affetto per ovvie ragioni emotive. Un altro esempio è che alcuni affermano di essere non fumatori ma non dicono di esserlo stati, per cui finiscono nella categoria sbagliata (“misclassification bias”). Un altro ancora: esistono circa 30 fattori di rischio per il cancro polmonare riportati da documentazioni professionali, mentre ce ne sono oltre 300 per le malattie cardiovascolari; il loro più che probabile effetto sugli studi sul fumo passivo non è mai stato credibilmente misurato e apportato a correzione. E’ quindi del tutto probabile che la piccola elevazione di rischio del 20% sia fittizia a causa di interferenze che non sono o non possono essere calcolate.

Quanto finora esposto, aggiunto ai problemi di misurazione menzionati in (1), è sufficiente a spiegare le vistose incongruenze degli studi sul fumo passivo, dove sono visibili sia elevazioni di rischio, sia effetti protettivi o – in numerosi studi - né l’uno né l’altro. Ne segue che le affermazioni sul fumo passivo – qualsiasi esse siano – non possono essere credibili.
 
3. La metodologia assurda - Una terza categoria di vizi irrecuperabili invalida gli studi sul fumo passivo indipendentemente dalle prime due e quindi invalida le dichiarazioni di nesso causale. La stragrande maggioranza di questi studi non definisce il rischio in base a più alte o più basse frequenze di cancro in funzione di più alte o più basse esposizioni al fumo; invece – come abbiamo visto - lo definisce in base a differenti memorie tra i gruppi messi a confronto. Gli uni consistono di sedicenti non fumatori tutti con cancro polmonare ed esposti al fumo passivo, gli altri di sedicenti non fumatori senza cancro polmonare e parimenti esposti al fumo passivo, perché persone che non sono mai state esposte al fumo passivo sono impossibili da trovare. A scopo illustrativo, si immagini che gli studi riportino che la gente senza cancro abbia ricordato un’esposizione di, diciamo, 100 e quella col cancro un’esposizione di 120. Stranamente, gli studi si arrogano di supporre che l’aver ricordato il 20% di più rappresenti il 20% in più di rischio!

Una tale inconcepibile supposizione implica anche l’assurdo ragionamento che l’aver ricordato il 20% in più di esposizioni - impossibili da verificare o misurare in primo luogo - sia stato responsabile per tutti i cancri al polmone del gruppo così affetto, mentre quelli che ricordano un po’ meno ne sono rimasti totalmente immuni. Inoltre la maggioranza degli studi non trovò differenze di esposizione, mentre altri trovarono che alcuni gruppi affetti da cancro ricordavano un’esposizione inferiore, suggerendo che una maggiore esposizione al fumo passivo avrebbe potuto proteggerli dal cancro stesso. [1]  [2]
 
Semplici differenze di esposizione non potrebbero mai essere tradotte in rischio senza una correlazione alle frequenze di cancro al polmone. Al massimo potrebbero indicare la necessità per ulteriori indagini, ma tali indagini non sarebbero affatto attendibili in assenza di una conoscenza precisa di come e quali altri fattori di rischio e tendenziosità operino in modo diverso tra chi ha il cancro e chi non lo ha; però tale conoscenza non è mai stata - né è - disponibile in questi studi. Queste realtà sono da sole sufficienti a scartare tutti i rischi attribuiti al fumo passivo.

E' esclusivamente sulle basi suesposte che il fumo è vietato nei locali pubblici a "tutela della salute dei non fumatori”.

Note sul copyright - FORCES Italiana, la società culturale AILATI, la AILATI Publishing Company e FORCES International (FORCES, Inc.) rinunciano a tutti i diritti su questo documento e ne incoraggiano la diffusione e duplicazione illimitata a condizione che il documento sia interamente riprodotto e che ne sia accreditata l’origine alle entità legali summenzionate.

 

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